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USD/IDR, USD/SGD, USD/MYR, USD/PHP: Coronavirus Impact on Trends

USD/IDR, USD/SGD, USD/MYR, USD/PHP, Coronavirus – ASEAN Technical Analysis

  • ASEAN currencies mostly succumb to declines on coronavirus fears
  • USD/IDR extended selloff, facing potential rising support from 2016
  • USD/SGD, USD/MYR and USD/PHP climbed towards key resistance

Indonesian Rupiah, Singapore Dollar, Malaysian Ringgit, Philippine Peso Fundamental Recap

The Indonesian Rupiah has gained while the Singapore Dollar, Malaysian Ringgit and Philippine Peso have declined against the US Dollar as of late. Fears of the coronavirus, which has been spreading from central China, have been denting market sentiment across the world. ASEAN currencies such as IDR, SGD, MYR and PHP tend to follow risk trends from a fundamental view. Where to from here based on technical analysis?

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Indonesian Rupiah Technical Outlook

The Indonesian Rupiah continued its rise against the US Dollar. USD/IDR fell to levels last seen in early 2018 following a fundamentally-supportive Bank of Indonesia interest rate decision. On a weekly chart, that leaves the currency pair facing a potential rising support line from September 2016 – red-dashed line below. A descent through it and 13605 opens the door to resuming the dominant downtrend. Above, key resistance sits at 13895 followed by the falling trend line from May.

USD/IDR Weekly Chart

USD/IDR, USD/SGD, USD/MYR, USD/PHP: Coronavirus Impact on Trends

USD/IDR Chart Created in TradingView

Singapore Dollar Technical Outlook

Weakness in the Singapore Dollar against the US Dollar has pushed USD/SGD towards key falling resistance from September – red lines below. A climb through this area and 1.3526 would place the dominant downtrend at risk. That could send the currency pair towards former support which may reinstate itself as new resistance at 1.3559 – 1.3571. Clearing this psychological barrier exposes highs from November. Falling through 1.3444 opens the door to resuming the downtrend towards 1.3400.

Learn more about how the MAS conducts monetary policy and what matters for the Singapore Dollar!

USD/SGD Daily Chart

USD/IDR, USD/SGD, USD/MYR, USD/PHP: Coronavirus Impact on Trends

USD/SGD Chart Created in TradingView

Malaysian Ringgit Technical Outlook

The Malaysian Ringgit is also under near-term pressure against the US Dollar. USD/MYR may have bottomed after positive RSI divergence emerged. This shows fading downside momentum which can at times precede a turn higher. A push through the falling trend line from December may open the door to reversing the key downtrend. That places the focus on resistance at 4.0850 followed by 4.1110. Resuming the downtrend entails taking out 4.0492 on the daily chart below.

To stay updated on fundamental developments for ASEAN currencies, follow me on Twitter here @ddubrovskyFX

USD/MYR Daily Chart

USD/IDR, USD/SGD, USD/MYR, USD/PHP: Coronavirus Impact on Trends

USD/MYR Chart Created in TradingView

Philippine Peso Technical Outlook

Weakness has extended into the Philippine Peso, but it remains in consolidation mode against the US Dollar. USD/PHP is approaching the upper psychological barrier which is a range between 51.13 to 51.30. If it holds, that may send the pair towards the lower barrier between 50.40 to 50.52. Otherwise, a climb through resistance opens the door to reversing the downtrend which occurred from August to November 2019.

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USD/PHP Daily Chart

USD/IDR, USD/SGD, USD/MYR, USD/PHP: Coronavirus Impact on Trends

USD/PHP Chart Created in TradingView

— Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter