US Dollar, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, USD/JPY – Technical Forecast
US Dollar Weekly Recap
The haven-linked US Dollar rose this past week against sentiment-tied currencies such as the Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar. Fears of the coronavirus sent the S&P 500 to its worst week since July, falling roughly over 2 percent. It however lost ground to its European counterparts such as the Euro and British Pound. The latter thanks to a less-dovish Bank of England rate decision. Where to from here?
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EUR/USD Technical Outlook
The near-term technical outlook for EUR/USD still appears to favor the downside. Prices remain under the former rising support range from October – blue lines on the chart below. This is as the falling trend line from December guides the Euro lower. The psychological barrier between 1.0981 to 1.1003 stemmed downside progress and taking it out requires a resumption of the downtrend. A daily close above the falling line may shift the near-term technical bias to the upside.
EUR/USD Daily Chart
EUR/USD Chart Created in TradingView
GBP/USD Technical Outlook
As expected, GBP/USD extended gains last week after prices formed a Symmetrical Triangle continuation pattern. That has placed the near-term focus to the upside with immediate resistance sitting above at 1.3284. The long-term downtrend may be kept intact however by falling resistance from June 2015. A push above it exposes the December peak at 1.3515. For a turn lower, keep a close eye on the December low at 1.2905 which if taken out, exposes 1.2769.
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GBP/USD Daily Chart
The Australian Dollar is on the edge of resuming its dominant downtrend that can be traced back to early 2018. The critical support range between 0.6672 and 0.6701 stands in the way as the psychological barrier. If this area is taken out, that would expose price levels that the AUD/USD has not seen since 2009. The next area of support may be the 61.8% Fibonacci extension at 0.6585. Maintaining the near-term downtrend from late December is a potential falling trend line – red line on the chart below.
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AUD/USD Daily Chart
USD/JPY Technical Outlook
The US Dollar also lost ground to the Japanese Yen last week. USD/JPY has extended its decline after a false breakout above the descending trend line from November 2018. What may maintain the medium-term uptrend is potential rising support from August – blue line on the chart below. There is also the psychological barrier between 108.01 to 107.65. If the latter is taken out ahead, the technical outlook may shift increasingly bearish.
USD/JPY Daily Chart
USD/JPY Chart Created in TradingView
— Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com
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