EURUSD price returned to the balance line

Today’s events (GMT 3):

• 11:50-12:30: Markit Services PMI (Feb) in France, Germany, the Eurozone, and the UK will be released.
• 13:00 Eurozone: Retail Sales (YoY) (Jan).
• 16:15 USA: ADP Employment Change (Feb).
• 17:45 USA: Markit Services PMI (Feb).
• 18:00 Canada: BoC Interest Rate Decision, BoC Rate Statement.
• 18:00 USA: ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Feb).
• 18:30 USA: EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (Feb 28).
• 22:00 USA: Fed’s Beige Book.

Current situation:

Expectations for a rollback to the balance line (Lb) were fully justified. Under the current price model, growth in rates and a new maximum being set on Tuesday were not considered.

The U3 line (sma 55 with a deviation of 1%) once again acted as resistance. From here, the price underwent a correction to 1.1143. Through 1.1134, we find the 67th degree and the Lb. A new strengthening of the euro may follow on from them, but it is unlikely to last very long, as a “bearish” divergence has formed between the current price and the AO indicator. The reference level is 1.1120, located under the Lb, if it is brought down, then the fall will accelerate to 1.1050.

There is another important point: the extraordinary FOMC meeting was a surprise for everyone, as it was scheduled for March 18. At the meeting, a decision was made to lower RBA rates. Today, we should also expect a rate cut by the Bank of Canada. If all central banks reduce their rates, then nothing of note should change amongst major currencies.

We do not consider growth for today, note that on the daily TF the euro went up by 3.9% against the dollar without savage pullbacks. A correction to 1.1045 will allow for unloading of indicators above 8H on TF.