S&P 500 Technical Analysis: US Stocks Resuming Down Move?

S&P 500 TECHNICAL OUTLOOK: BEARISH

• S&P 500 breaks trend line support, warns selloff is resuming
• Foothold above 3027.75 needed to neutralize selling pressure
• Trader sentiment studies warn bearish pivot may be brewing

The S&P 500 is attempting to re-engage the downtrend started in late February courtesy of the Covid-19 coronavirus outbreak. A false start a week agoended fruitlessly but sellers are trying to retake momentum once again with a break of trend line support guiding the bellwether stock index’s recovery from late-February lows, where it found a bottom as the Fed leaned in against a would-be credit crisis.

From here, breaking below initial support at 2726.50 on a daily closing basis looks likely to expose the 2603-26 price inflection zone next. Beyond that, the spotlight turns to the December 2018 low at 2316.37, followed by the 2020 bottom at 2174. Neutralizing the near-term bearish bias seems to require prices to reclaim a foothold above resistance in the 3023.50-27.75 area.

Daily S&P 500 chart created with TradingView

S&P 500 TRADER SENTIMENT

Retail sentiment data shows 72.67% of traders are net-short, with the short-to-long ratio at 2.66 to 1. IG Client Sentiment (IGCS) is typically used as a contrarian indicator, so the skew in current positioning suggests that the S&P 500 is biased upward. However, the tilt in sellers’ favor has narrowed compared with yesterday and a week ago, hinting that a reversal in the opposite direction may be in the works.

See the full IGCS sentiment report here.

S&P 500 TRADING RESOURCES

— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter