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S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Charts – Failure to Rally Would Show Change in Character

U.S. Indices Highlights

  • S&P 500 not rallying thus far, in technically weak spot
  • Nasdaq 100 is the leader here, keep a close eye on it

The S&P 500 has yet to spring to life after taking a shot from record highs. Oftentimes, sideways price action after a strong move indicates an inability to reverse the market, lending to a continuation signal. This would be a change in character from the strong price action we have become used to seeing (especially in the NDX).

Adding to the bearish case is the positioning of where the sideways churn is taking shape. The S&P is trading below the May trend-line and previous record high made in February. This leaves the index lacking a bit of support. A break below 3310 should have the area around 3233 in focus, the high from June.

If, however, we can see the market to start to climb from here with some meaningful momentum, then perhaps the worst is over and run at the highs will commence. For now, leaning in the bear camp but a break below 3310 is needed for this to gain further traction.

S&P 500 Daily Chart (Change in character?)

S&P 500 daily chart

S&P 500 Chart by TradingView

The Nasdaq 100 is the leader here, so while the S&P sits where it sits, the leading index and its heavy weighting in the world’s largest companies is what matters the most (in my opinion). But it too has a broken technical threshold and failing to recover so far.

The slope from April we had been using as a bullish guide was broken in the recent downdraft, and with it a failure to rally is lending to the notion we could see another leg lower. This has been an extremely one-way bubble type market, but that could continue to be put on hold, if we see the recent congestion turn into another round of selling. Watch 10940, a break below could put the index on the path towards the 10300-area.

Nasdaq 100Daily Chart (broken slope…)

NDX daily chart

Nasdaq 100 Chart by TradingView

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—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX