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Gold Weekly Technical Forecast: Range Holds Ahead of US Election

GOLD TECHNICAL HIGHLIGHTS: Neutral

  • Gold Holds Narrow Range Ahead of US Election
  • Biden Maintaining a Comfortable Lead
  • Risk Events for Next Week Include: ECB and US Q3 GDP
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Gold Holds Narrow Range Ahead of US Election

A somewhat indecisive week for the precious metal, which is set to close marginally higher, +0.2% at the time of writing. While headline tennis persists with US Stimulus talks, the probability of pre-election stimulus remains low, no matter how optimistic House Speaker Pelosi may be, it depends on Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. The big focus into the final trading week of October, is still the US election as such, the precious metal has traded in a very narrow range ahead of the risk event. Election polls have continued to show a firm lead for Biden over Trump, however, it is important to note that the lead has narrowed in recent sessions thus polling data will become of increasing importance next week, particularly in the key battleground states. That said, next week will appear to be more of the same with market participants remaining patient ahead of the election.

Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily2%2%2%
Weekly6%-9%3%

Biden Maintaining a Comfortable Lead

Trump vs Biden spread

Risk Events for Next Week Include: ECB and US Q3 GDP

While key data points including US GDP, and the ECB monetary policy decision will garner attention, gold is likely to remain within a narrow range. The US Q3 GDP will provide a first look at the strength of the economic bounce back from coronavirus and also the last key data point before the US election. Elsewhere, the ECB press conference as opposed to the decision itself may be of more interest given the second wave of virus cases across the Eurozone, sparking renewed restrictions, thus weighing on growth expectations, while inflation has also remained soft. In turn, the ECB will maintain its dovish stance and perhaps lay the groundwork for December action.

Economic Calendar

Gold: Topside in gold has been capped by the October high at circa 1930, which also coincides with the 55DMA, while a break above opens the doors to 1960. On the downside, initial support is situated at 1890-95 with a push below opening the doors to 1875-80.

Gold Price Chart: Daily Time Frame

XAUUSD Chart

Source: Refinitiv