USD Technical Outlook
- US Dollar Index (DXY) is gunning to create a long-term trend
- Watch the short-term price action, could have big-picture ramifications
USD Technical Analysis: DXY Gunning for New Cycle Highs
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is working on trading to new cycle highs, and to do so it will need to climb above the May high at 105. A sustained breakout above this level that eventually leads to a monthly closing print above it could have major long-term ramifications.
The range over the past few years appears at serious risk of breaking given the macro landscape has shifted so dramatically in the past couple of years. With ‘all that is going on’ it doesn’t seem likely that the dollar will continue to trade within the same range for much longer.
With that in mind, the May reversal candle we looked at on Friday looks at risk of getting negated as soon as this month. But perhaps not, maybe we see the DXY reverse here shortly around 105 and continue to keep the broader breakout at bay. For now.
This is a macro view with respect to the dollar taking off out of its range, so it could take more time to develop. But again it seems very likely at some point it will make the move.
In the short-term the 105 level will be in focus. A near-term reversal around the level could put longs at risk and give shorts the upper hand even if the general tides are rolling in favor of the dollar. A daily close above 105 doesn’t necessarily imply that longs will maintain the upper hand, however.
A breakout and reverse after becoming extended is still a risk. Trading around major levels like this can get a little tricky, and on that taking a wait-and-see approach may be prudent for the more conservative until we have a little better clarity on how the DXY wants to treat this potentially significant rejection/breakout on a monthly basis.
US Dollar Index (DXY) Monthly Chart
US Dollar Index (DXY) Daily Chart
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—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX