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Euro Technical Outlook – EUR/USD is at a Crossroads While EUR/JPY has Picked Up Steam

Euro, EUR/USD, US Dollar, EUR/JPY, Japanese Yen – Talking points

  • EUR/USD has recovered from a test of the lows
  • Yen depreciation sees EUR/JPY eyeing new highs
  • Momentum might be the key. Can EUR/USD break higher?


EUR/USD appears to be content to trade sideways for now after failing to break lower last week, hitting a low of 1.0359.

That move challenged last month’s low of 1.0349, which was above the January 2017 low of 1.0340. These levels may provide a support zone in the 1.0340 – 1.0360 area.

That move has also set-up a potential Double Bottom that might signal a reversal.

The price has moved above the 10-day simple moving average (SMA) but remains below the 21-, 34-, 55-, and 100-day SMAs, which could suggest bearish momentum is pausing.

A move above the nearby 34-SMA would further support this. All period SMAs have a negative gradient that is working against bullish momentum for now. A move back below the 10-day SMA might suggest a resumption of bearish momentum.

There is a cluster of resistance above the price with the 21-, 34- and 55-day SMAs among a previous high, a break point and a descending trend line. These all sit between 1.0580 and 1.0660. A break above 1.0660 could be significant.


Chart Created in TradingView


Bullish momentum appears to have resumed for EUR/JPY after breaking the top side of a Pennant formation last month.

At that time, the price re-asserted bullish momentum by moving above the 10-, 21-, 55- and 100-day simple moving averages (SMA).

Since then, it has gone on to make an 8-year high at 144.25 earlier this month and this could be a level of resistance.

The 21-, 55- and 100-day SMAs have positive gradients but the 10-day SMA has recently rolled over to negative. An uptick to the 10-day SMA could support further bullish momentum.

The subsequent pullback tried to break below an ascending trend line but was unable to follow through. Support may remain at the trend line, currently dissecting at a break point of 140.00.

Further down, support could be at the break points of 139.00, 138.32 and 136.79.


Chart Created in TradingView

— Written by Daniel McCarthy, Strategist for

To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @DanMcCathyFX on Twitter